Nation set to miss 10% trade target (2)

Qiao estimated that the contribution of exports to GDP growth will be minus 0.4 percent this year, and it will fall even further in 2013 to lower than minus 0.5 percent.

"The years 2013 and 2014 will still be the darkest hour before the dawn," she said.

Qiao's views were echoed by Ha Jiming, vice-chairman for China at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, who said: "It is hard for China's exports to grow further unless customers on the moon buy our products."

Qiao said the largest employing sector in China would no longer be exporters, but the service industry.

"The current employment level of the service sector is just 20 percent, compared with 70 percent in the United States, so there is still huge room for development."

"Without doubt the growth rate of exports will be slower than that of GDP, " Ha said.

Chen said China contributed more than 20 percent to global economic expansion in 2011, and its imports in the year were worth $1.7 trillion.

Meanwhile, the weight of trade surplus in the country's total economic output has come down from 7.6 percent in 2007 to 2.1 percent in 2011, comfortable by global standards.

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