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Economic challenges to persist with re-election (3)

By Lan Lan (China Daily)

08:58, November 08, 2012

"Obama is not a better problem-solver than (his challenger Mitt) Romney. I feel worried about the US economy and new economic fluctuations are very possible," Li said.

"The prospects for US economic recovery are gloomy, which will drag on the world economy, including China's. Obama is shifting his focus to international affairs in his second term and I'm concerned that China will be a target."

Zhang Ming, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said it makes little difference to China whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans that are setting US domestic economic policy. Both parties are likely to adopt an ultra-loose monetary policy, generating more "hot money" and greater inflationary pressure on China.

China will have to continue to deal with the consequences of US macroeconomic policies in coming years, he said.

China on Thursday holds the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will lead to the election of the country's new top leadership.

Harris, at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects the new leadership to look to smaller measures to help the economy, instead of making big changes.

"The growth peak has passed for China - no economy can grow by 10 percent forever. My assumption is around 8 percent for the next few years," he said.

He said the biggest concern for the Chinese economy is inflation and the country needs to deal with its structural issues.

Harris said the third round of quantitative easing announced by the US Federal Reserve in September is a double-edged sword.

"It's probably good for the world economy, given how fragile the US economy is right now," he said. "But the negative part is ... increasing bubbles in the asset market."

lanlan@chinadaily.com.cn

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