It is pure wishful thinking for Abe to expect to obtain more bargaining chips against China through tortuous diplomacy. As the world's third largest and Asia's second largest economy, Japan has indeed some influence over certain Southeast Asian countries, but that is not enough to contain China. Japan should not overestimate its clout, or underestimate the positive interaction between China and other countries.
Abe is liable to swings in foreign policy given domestic political needs, national interests, and his personal needs, as can be shown by his performance during his first term as prime minister.
Therefore, it is still uncertain what kind of foreign policy the Abe cabinet will adopt toward other countries, particularly China. The main problem is that if Abe and his cabinet continue to adopt outdated history, security, and diplomatic concepts, the plan of "strategic diplomacy" will definitely fail. If Abe takes "strategic diplomacy" as a framework for adopting a hardline foreign policy against China, his plan will eventually backfire no matter how much effort he puts in.
Read the Chinese version: 安倍迂回外交能牵制中国吗？; Source:Haiwainet.cn; Author: Jia Xiudong
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