Latest News:  

English>>Business

Recent strengthening of U.S. dollar could weaken most Asian currencies

By Tan Shih Ming (Xinhua)

17:31, May 27, 2013

SINGAPORE, May 27 (Xinhua) -- As the U.S. dollar strengthened further after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the possibility of scaling back quantitative easing and after discussions among Fed officials of exiting from monetary stimulus during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week were revealed, financial analysts here have predicted that majority of the Asian currencies may decline for quite some time to come. The strength of the U.S. dollar had been bolstered by the minutes of last FOMC meeting and Bernanke's testimony before the U.S. Congress.

Bernanke told U.S. legislators that he did not rule out cutting back on bond-buying program in the coming months if economic data would show significant improvement.

He also opined that the Fed can take the decision to scale back in the next two to three weeks, adding that he would not even rule out a scale back of quantitative easing by U.S. Labor Day. According to the minutes of their last FOMC meeting, a number of Federal Reserve officials said they were willing to taper down bond buying as early as the next FOMC meeting on June 18 and 19 if economic reports confirm "evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth." Indeed, it has already been a bumpy ride for most Asian currencies in recent weeks. The outlook has turned even less positive for most currencies, given Bernanke's comments and the Fed minutes. UOB Economic-Treasury Research believed that the fixation with the cutback of quantitative easing will stay with the currency markets for the next few weeks.

The crucial events will now be the U.S. non-farm payrolls due on June 7, followed by the next FOMC decision on June 19 which may lead to the potential announcement of any change in the quantitative easing program.

HSBC Global Research said downward pressure will be felt among Asian currencies where yields are low. In this light, the Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and South Korea won will be most vulnerable.

For Singapore dollar, there is still room for it to weaken further against the greenback within the existing policy framework. Both Taiwan dollar and South Korea won will trend lower, particularly if the U.S. dollar goes up even higher against Japanese yen that will make Japanese exports cheaper, forcing the policy makers of its northern Asian neighbors to react in the currency front.

While the Malaysian ringitt, Philippine peso and Thai baht are not immune to strength of the U.S. dollar, HSBC said they should be less sensitive than the Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and South Korea won.

The movement of Malaysian ringitt is dictated more by the price of soft commodities such as crude palm oil, whereas in the case of Indonesian rupiah, the drag from a large current account deficit plays the more dominant role than the U.S. dollar's pull factor.

As for the Chinese yuan, HSBC said its outlook is more about reform and liberalization rather than the movement of the U.S. dollar. It is the only Asian currency on which HSBC maintained a positive view in light of the U.S. dollar rally. Any drop of Chinese yuan due to U.S gain will be temporary and HSBC therefore forecast year-end level of 6.14 Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.

We Recommend:

Intelligent & beautiful Asian business women

19-year-old self-made multimillionaire

55th Housing Fair held in E China's Jiangsu

Top 10 instant noodles of all time

Eye-catching models highlight house fair

'Lipstick effect' hits China as economy slows

10 million-yuan bra shines in North China

Top 10 most competitive cities in China in 2013

Hot atmosphere at Int'l Brand Underwear Fair

Email|Print|Comments(Editor:WangXin、Zhang Qian)

Leave your comment0 comments

  1. Name

  

Selections for you


  1. East China Sea Fleet conducts drill

  2. Snipers complete military skill training

  3. Photos of the week (May 19 - May 25)

  4. Thrilling hurdlers in street

  5. Teacher nabbed for molesting students

  6. Group wedding for migrant workers

  7. World's largest Lego in Times Square

  8. China defends Sudirman Cup

  9. Ladies in finance industries

  10. Most competitive airlines in the world

Most Popular

Opinions

  1. Apple's tax dodge smacks of abuse
  2. Chinese premier's Swiss tour fruitful, influential
  3. China-Switzerland FTA to benefit both sides
  4. What China-Switzerland FTA brings about?
  5. What does Premier Li's Europe visit mean?
  6. Not enough attention paid to neurological diseases
  7. Why Chinese youths appear gloomy
  8. Let taxi fare reform be fair
  9. Beijing taxi fare rise hardly seen as all-win solution
  10. Hope and concerns for civilian drone industry

What’s happening in China

Photo story: State-owned barbershop dying out

  1. Blackout hits high-speed trains
  2. Top procuratorate probes blast at explosives plant
  3. Organ from 8-year-old blind girl saves 4
  4. Student awarded 120,000 yuan for damaged skin
  5. Many parents' crashing ignorance in China