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Buzz about "Abenomics" becoming more of a hum ahead of upper house elections (2)

By Sun Xiaozheng, Jon Day (Xinhua)

21:12, July 05, 2013

The prime minister has vowed to increase incomes by 3 percent annually over the next ten years and plans to set up special " economic zones" in a bid to attract more overseas investment.

He has also laid out audacious plans for the commercial electricity market, with his plans underpinned by pumping massive amounts of new money into the economy, leaning on the central bank to further ease its monetary policy, while eyeing injecting billions of yen into private sector industries.

Economists attest that these plans, along with a host of other fiscal stimulus measures, have not yet been fully elucidated.

Moreover, economists are concerned that from within the " Abenomics" paradigm, which comprises his "three arrows" approach of monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus to promote growth and long- term structural change to ensure sustainable growth, it is the final arrow -- structural change -- that could lead to Abe's economic pipe dream turning into a national nightmare.

Structural change, by definition takes time, and the growth potential and sustainability are dependent on such reforms as lowering tax rates, increasing investment productivity and boosting consumer spending.

To this end, analysts maintain that as yet a clear roadmap for such reforms have yet to be unrolled and as such, in financial circles, there remains a degree of skepticism in "Abenomics". They caution that what started of as a buzz is starting to become a hum.

Admittedly, aggressive monetary stimulus did help drive the yen down sharply and push the equity market in a positive direction at first and the Nikkei's string of bullish closes helped lift consumer confidence, but the novelty may be wearing off, if the recent firmness of the yen and market volatility can be taken as barometers.

The market for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) has also shown volatility, with yields rising instead of falling, in contrast to Abe's stratagem and also contributing to the yen's strength, with the central bank having little control of the ever-increasing fluctuations and undermining Abe's whole bond-buying proposition.

Kaieda, backed by economic authorities, has stated that " Abenomics," will ultimately lead to far higher consumer prices for the everyman, at a time when wages have been largely frozen and consumption tax will likely be hiked.

If Abe's ruling LDP and its junior coalition partner do garner the requisite votes needed to seize total control of the upper house later this month, it would effectively give them control of both chambers of parliament and possibly for as long as three years -- long enough for Abe and his party to prove whether " Abenomics" is indeed a futile buzzword or a tangible rescue plan for Japan's economic and social maladies.

"In my view, 'Abenomics' will last for a couple of years. If everything goes well according to the original plan," said Du Jin, Professor of International Development, Takushoku University in an interview with Xinhua.

"But there is still great uncertainty. Shinzo Abe intended to stay longer in power, but the political reality is that during the last eight years, the average life of the Japanese cabinet and its prime ministers is about one year. What will happen to Abe in his second term, we will have to wait and see."

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