China steps up planetary defense efforts amid asteroid impact concerns

Recent reports of a potential asteroid impact have sparked widespread concern on Chinese social media, with many voicing safety worries. Amid the discussions, public attention has turned to China's recruitment of planetary defense experts. On Thursday, media reported that Shan Zhongde, head of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), visited the Earth Observation and Data Center - a move expert says highlights China's growing focus on this critical field.

Shan said during a symposium held at the center that recent efforts in asteroid monitoring and early warning have shown promising progress. He emphasized the need to strengthen technological innovation, actively explore new models of digital and intelligent supervision, and enhance capabilities in identifying, assessing, warning against, and responding to safety risks, according to the official WeChat account of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program.

The visit follows mounting worries from the public, after news broke out that an asteroid that could be as big as a football field could strike Earth in December 2032. According to an ABC News report on Wednesday, the chances of the asteroid named 2024 YR4 impacting Earth within the next decade have doubled within weeks, according to NASA astronomers.

When the detection of the asteroid was announced last month, NASA predicted just a 1.3 percent probability of it hitting Earth. The likelihood has now increased to 2.1 percent, per the report. On Friday, the European Space Agency (ESA) updated the likelihood of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 2.2 percent, making it the highest-ranked threat on ESA's risk list.

Scientists around the world are continuing observations to track its trajectory. "By April, additional data will be available, and by 2028, during the next observation window, we can better assess its probability of hitting Earth," Li Mingtao, a professor at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the Global Times.

If it does happen, Li said the asteroid is unlikely to directly hit Earth's surface but would disintegrate in the atmosphere. Even if it hits the surface, the asteroid would most likely land in the ocean. "A distant ocean impact would have minimal effects, while a near-shore impact might generate tsunamis impacting coastal areas. A land impact could generate shockwaves, thermal radiation, and light radiation, potentially devastating an area the size of a medium-sized city," Li noted.

The most viable solution at present is launching a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid at high speed, altering its orbit to avoid Earth. In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission successfully demonstrated humanity's ability to change an asteroid's trajectory, China Science Daily reported.

Amid the public's heated discussions, netizens recently uncovered a 2025 public recruitment notice issued by the Major Project Center of China's State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense. Released on January 14, 2025, the notice revealed plans to hire three planetary defense specialists, whose responsibilities will include research on near-Earth asteroid monitoring and early warning.

"The visit by the CNSA head to the Earth Observation and Data Center, along with the recent recruitment of talents in this field, indicates that China has placed heightened attention on asteroid impact monitoring," Kang Guohua, a senior member of the Chinese Society of Astronautics and professor of Aerospace Engineering at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, told the Global Times on Thursday.

The establishment of this position is likely more focused on management coordination, Kang said. Planetary defense primarily refers to a systematic engineering effort aimed at preventing near-Earth asteroids or comets from colliding with Earth through technologies such as monitoring, early warning, interception, or deflection. As such, it involves multiple units and various technical approaches, necessitating unified management and coordination.

China unveiled its first near-Earth asteroid defense mission NEA in September 2024, aimed at closely observing an asteroid before executing a kinetic impact to alter its trajectory around 2030, according to Tang Yuhua, a deputy chief designer of Chang'e-7 Mission, Xinhua News Agency reported.

The blueprint for the country's asteroid defense involves two spacecraft - an impactor and an observer - launched into space with one rocket. The observer will first move around the small asteroid to be targeted, for the purposes of detection, before guiding the impactor from afar to strike it. After the kinetic impact, the observer will further have an accompanying flight with the very asteroid that changes its orbit, according to Tang.