China's economy on steady course to realize 2024 targets

* The Chinese economy gained a firm footing in the third quarter of this year in the face of mounting challenges at home and abroad.

* Policymakers have introduced a series of measures aimed at beefing up the economy this year.

* Authorities are confident that the economy will achieve the annual growth target of around 5 percent.

BEIJING, Oct. 18 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese economy gained a firm footing in the third quarter (Q3) of this year in the face of mounting challenges at home and abroad, and authorities believe the country will remain on a steady course to achieve its full-year targets.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8 percent year on year to around 94.97 trillion yuan (about 13.33 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first three quarters of this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Friday. In Q3, the economy expanded 4.6 percent from a year ago and went up 0.9 percent on a quarterly basis.

Despite a complicated external environment and emerging challenges at home, the Chinese economy has posted generally stable performance, Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of the NBS, told a press conference Friday.

In a breakdown, industrial output climbed 5.8 percent compared to the first nine months of the previous year, as robust increases were seen in equipment and high-tech manufacturing industries. The service sector reported continued recovery with a 4.7-percent increase in added value.

Consumption maintained an upward trend during the period with retail sales of consumer goods up 3.3 percent from a year ago. Fixed-asset investment rose 3.4 percent, spurred by vibrant capital influx into high-tech industries.

The job market was stable as the surveyed urban unemployment rate on average stood at 5.1 percent in the first three quarters, down from 5.3 percent a year ago. The nominal growth of per capita disposable incomes of urban and rural residents came in at 5.2 percent.

Job seekers talk with recruiting representatives at a job fair in Haikou, capital of south China's Hainan Province, July 20, 2024. (Xinhua/Guo Cheng)

STABLE TREND UNCHANGED

According to the NBS data, the third quarter's growth was slightly down from 4.7 percent in the second quarter and 5.3 percent in the first. Despite this dip, authorities noted that the overall stability of the economy has remained intact.

"Fluctuations of the GDP growth are modest changes around the expected target," said Sheng. He cited a string of favorable conditions, including stable employment and inflation levels, forecast-beating foreign trade, and ample foreign exchange reserves recently rebounding to 3.3 trillion U.S. dollars.

Meanwhile, high-quality development made headway, particularly in innovation and green transformation. Investment in the high-tech sector has seen rapid growth, while green industries, including electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products, maintained double-digit increases. Production and consumption in wind, nuclear and photovoltaic power expanded steadily.

Powered by innovation and green upgrades, industrial performance emerged as a key strength, contributing nearly 40 percent of the GDP in the first three quarters.

This photo taken on Aug. 14, 2024 shows the new energy vehicles production line of a smart factory of Seres Group in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality. (Xinhua/Wang Quanchao)

Analysts believe that the positive signs were particularly evident last month as many indicators showed improvement.

Increases in industrial output and fixed-asset investment ended several months of decline, and a recent survey revealed increased optimism among businesses. Stock trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surged by over 30 percent last month. The real estate market also warmed up, with a narrowing decline in sales volume and value.

The positive momentum was further bolstered by a key meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee in late September, where a package of incremental policies significantly enhanced market confidence and vitality, Sheng said.

STRONG STIMULUS

Chinese policymakers have introduced a series of measures aimed at beefing up the economy in response to looming challenges.

These efforts, including a program of large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods, supportive real estate policies and the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, have helped boost domestic demand and strengthen the economic impetus.

The central government has since late September unveiled what experts consider a package of milestone macroeconomic measures, which focused on enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding effective domestic demand, supporting business operation, promoting the recovery of the property market, and invigorating capital markets.

People buy fruit at a supermarket in Kaifeng, central China's Henan Province, Sept. 15, 2024. (Photo by Li Junsheng/Xinhua)

Tian Xuan, president of the National Institute of Finance, Tsinghua University, emphasized the timeliness and precision of these measures, stating they played a crucial role in boosting confidence among market participants amid economic headwinds.

The policies are showing positive effects, Sheng said, urging local governments to promptly take corresponding measures to maximize the potential of these policies and further solidify the economic recovery trend.

Goldman Sachs earlier this month lifted its forecasts on China's economic growth for this year from 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent on the grounds of the recent pro-growth measures.

BRIGHTENED PROSPECTS

China's economy is expected to continue its recovery in the fourth quarter, following signs of stabilization observed in September, according to Sheng. "We are confident in achieving our annual targets," he said. China set a target of economic growth at around 5 percent for this year.

The 4.8-percent growth rate in the first three quarters came as a hard-won result achieved amid increasing external pressures and ongoing internal structural adjustments, Sheng said, noting that this growth highlights the economy's strong resilience and potential and lays a solid foundation for future recovery.

An economic rebound in the fourth quarter is of "high probability," Sheng said, citing encouraging changes in early October including power use, production material prices, and the consumption during the week-long National Day holiday.

An aerial drone photo shows a train for China-Europe freight service pulling out of Tongjiang North Railway Port in northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, Aug. 9, 2024. (Photo by Wu Yunan/Xinhua)

The official also expressed optimism over the much-watched real estate market thanks to the fresh round of favorable policies. He referenced recent market statistics showing a significant increase in property transactions during the first week of October, when new home sales more than doubled and second-hand home sales tripled.

However, Sheng acknowledged that the external environment has become more complex, and that economic recovery needs to be further consolidated.

More efforts will be made to strengthen the coordination of existing and incremental policies and push for the swift and effective policy implementation in a bid to achieve the full-year economic and social development targets, Sheng added.