Rate cuts set to boost market confidence

China's top financial regulators, in a move that went beyond market expectations, unveiled a potent combination of monetary easing measures on Tuesday, aimed at anchoring market confidence and underpinning economic recovery amid domestic and global headwinds, analysts said.

The forceful one-two punch, including cutting the reserve requirement ratio, key policy interest rates, and existing mortgage loan interest rates, will foster a more enabling climate for the world's second-largest economy to hit this year's growth target, they added.

"Recent macroeconomic data pointing to a tepid recovery in domestic consumption and weak inflationary pressures have created space for policymakers to ramp up efforts to bolster the economy," said Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities.

"The gradual release of the policy package will help shore up market sentiment, unleash pent-up consumer demand, and drive a pickup in prices, putting the economy on a more favorable growth trajectory," he added.

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, said at a news conference on Tuesday that the reserve requirement ratio — the amount of cash that banks are required to have on hand — will be reduced by 0.5 percentage point in the near term, which will free up about 1 trillion yuan ($142.2 billion) for new lending.

This marks the second time that the central bank has lowered the RRR this year, after implementing a 0.5 percentage point reduction in February, indicating that Chinese policymakers are proactively tapping into the policy space provided by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week, experts said.

Following the latest reduction, the average reserve ratio for the banking sector will drop to around 6.6 percent. This level still leaves considerable flexibility to further lower the RRR if needed, when compared with other major global economies, Pan said.

China's central bank will not shy away from further RRR cuts of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points this year, depending on the prevailing market liquidity conditions, Pan added.

The central bank also announced a reduction in its seven-day reverse repo rate — the short-term policy benchmark of interest rates — by 0.2 percentage points from the current 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent.

This move is expected to drive down the medium-term lending facility rate by around 0.3 percentage points, with the loan prime rates also projected to follow suit, declining by 0.2 to 0.25 percentage points, Pan added.

A new set of policies aimed at further stabilizing the real estate market was also unveiled at the news conference, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in average existing mortgage rates and lowering the minimum down payment ratio from the current 25 percent to 15 percent on second homes, among others.

Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that Tuesday's policy package was more proactive and comprehensive than expectations and indicated policymakers' intention to deliver timely policy support, helping strengthen society's confidence in achieving the economic growth target of about 5 percent for the year.

Guan said fiscal policy should synergize with accommodative monetary measures. Measures such as expanding this year's government deficit to boost fiscal spending and optimizing the fiscal spending structure to improve people's livelihoods are worth consideration, especially in light of households' reluctance to consume and invest due to debt burdens.

China's stock and foreign exchange markets reacted positively to the policy release, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumping 4.15 percent to Tuesday's close at 2,863.13 points, the biggest rise in about four years.

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the policies will provide much-needed support to homeowners by alleviating their debt burden and boosting consumer spending.

Wang said the higher level of existing mortgage interest rates compared with new mortgages has triggered a notable wave of early loan repayments, posing a drag on household consumption.

According to a central bank report released in July, the average monthly early repayment volume reached 387 billion yuan from September to December last year, which translates to an annualized early mortgage repayment of around 4.6 trillion yuan.

While the mortgage rate cuts, on the other side, will have a tangible impact on bank earnings, the authorities are likely to take a balanced approach, such as orderly adjustments to deposit rates to ensure the banking sector's resilience, Wang said.