Economists expect recession in U.S. this year: survey

PARIS, March 29 (Xinhua) -- Economists expect the United States to enter a recession in 2023, and to face high inflation into 2024, a survey has shown.

Over two-thirds of respondents to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Policy Survey predict that inflation will remain above 4 percent at the end of this year.

The biannual survey, conducted between March 2 and 10, analyzed the answers of 217 NABE members.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to increase rates to 4.75 percentage points in an effort to tackle rising inflation, which last year reached its highest level in a decade.

In February, price rises slowed down to an annual level of 6 percent, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2 percent.

"More than half of NABE Policy Survey panelists expect a recession at some point in 2023," NABE President Julia Coronado said.

"However, only 5 percent believe the U.S. is currently in a recession, far fewer than the 19 percent who held this view in the August Policy Survey," she added.

Meanwhile, 53 percent of respondents believe that current fiscal policy is too simulative, the survey said.

More than seven in 10 panelists predict that growth in the consumer price index (CPI) will remain above 4 percent through the end of 2023.

In addition, more than two-thirds are not confident that the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2 percent goal within the next two years without inducing a recession.