U.S. California population drop continues as experts disagree on severity

SAN DIEGO, the United States, Feb. 28 (Xinhua) -- Population in the U.S. state of California fell by 500,000 between April 2020 and July 2022, and migration out of the state surpassed those coming into the state by more than 700,000 throughout the two-year period, according to the latest census data.

The news was highlighted by many conservative media like Fox, which reported that "California's major cities have been plagued with homelessness, crime and skyrocketing housing costs, causing many residents to flee to nearby states like Utah, Nevada and even Texas."

"Californians who remain in the state are also likely to face frequent power outages and failures in the coming years as state leaders continue to push for renewable energy," it added.

But some experts said the losses had been negligible as the overall population of the Golden State dropped in the past couple of years dating back to when the millennium began.

"Since 2000, California has experienced its slowest rates of growth ever recorded," the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) revealed last month. "From 2010 to 2020, California's population grew by 5.8 percent, or 2.4 million."

And every year in February, after U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) data is released showing the most populous state in the country losing a few people, the media jump on the "big" story bandwagon.

"California's total population declined by more than 500,000 between April 2020 and July 2022," said a Los Angeles Times column one week ago, which triggered thousands of views and close to 1,000 comments last week.

"Californians Are Relocating in Huge Numbers," a headline read on the law firm of Borowitz &Clark's website earlier this month.

Most social media posts from readers said the "huge migration" news was media hype, according to respondents to the Times column republished by Yahoo last week.

"270k less people in a county of almost 4 million (Los Angeles), not really much of a dent is it," Bob VW posted on Yahoo last week.

"In 2021, it was big news - the California exodus. Now, it just looks like the new trend: California's population is still shrinking," CalMatters, a nonpartisan and nonprofit news organization focusing on local agendas in California, said on Feb. 17.

Only "1 out of 100 people living in California at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic had, two years later, left the state, either by U-Haul or by hearse," the report, which was republished throughout the West, added.

Most agreed that if 500,000 people left Montana, U.S. fourth largest state with a miniscule population of 1.1 million, the impact would be totally different.

Actually, California's aggregate population "dropped by around 182,000 in 2020 and then declined by 117,552 in 2021, according to USCB statistics.

And, California's decline in population isn't entirely attributable to migration. The birth rate dropped during the pandemic while mortality jumped, according to media reports.

"More than 70 percent of U.S. counties saw a natural decrease in population in 2021," the Census Bureau noted - natural decrease in population occurs when deaths outnumber births.

There are many reasons why people are leaving U.S. historically most desirable state, despite its second to none "lifestyle," the best climate in the country, the U.S. top state economy and biggest population, about 38 million as of 2023, followed by Texas (29 million) and Florida (21 million), whose populations have grown in the past three years.

But California's got Hollywood, the LA Lakers, a sunny and spectacular coastline of 840 miles and 420 beaches, and a history rich in lore, culture and U.S. heritage.

"Discovered" by Spaniards in 1542, California was swarmed by goldminers in 1849 and became U.S. 31st state the following year. In 1941, the Golden State produced warships and became the front-line of expected attack from Japan after Pearl Harbor. Today, millions of Americans watch sunsets over the Pacific Ocean each evening from California's stunning coast.

Overall, experts said the reasons for Californians leaving are high housing costs, traffic congestion, crime, high taxes, and pollution.

But many also question the conventional thought that the migration is a long-term phenomenon.

The San Diego Union Tribune last Saturday asked several experts about the population decrease, and several said it could also reverse course.

"Perhaps, in the short term, and if economic discrepancies continue to widen, we can expect small departures," said Austin Neudecker of Weave Growth, a private investment firm based in Silicon Valley.

"Over longer periods, I believe the open and accepting culture, foreign immigration, quality higher education, and innovation and investment mecca producing new companies will attract people to California," he added.

Concerning Taxes, Neudecker said that some states had rushed "to the bottom" to incentivize businesses to relocate, alluding to Elon Musk relocating Tesla from California to Texas, one of several U.S. states that have no income tax.

Academic experts noted economic disparities in California's economic blueprint.

"The high cost of housing, taxes, traffic congestion, and burdens of running a business in California have been leading people and businesses to relocate to states like Texas and Florida," said James Hamilton, an econometrician teaching at the University of California, San Diego.

"California could fix all these problems, but until we do, I don't expect population growth to return to its historical pace," said Hamilton, one of many who questioned the political leadership of the heavily-Democratic Golden State.

Local activists were more stinging with their criticism of local government.

"So long as our schools continue to rank near the bottom, our streets are lined with tent encampments, the costs of doing business escalate, and our housing is inaccessible to hard-working professionals and families, people will vote with their feet," said Haney Hong of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, an advocate for businesses and individuals who lobby for lower taxation.

"Good weather and life's pleasures in California don't pay the bills, and while many things do grow on trees here, money sure doesn't," Hong added.