U.S. economy tips into mild recession next year: JPMorgan

NEW YORK, Nov. 18 (Xinhua) -- The Federal Reserve still has room to run its campaign to tighten the screws on the U.S. economy, and its efforts will probably tip the country into a recession in 2023, business news website INSIDER reported earlier this week, citing JPMorgan.

Analysts led by Michael Feroli forecasted in a Wednesday note to clients that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December will result a half-point hike, and that investors should expect 25 basis-point hikes at both the February and March meetings next year.

Even that dialing down of rate hikes, however, is still likely to slow the economy enough to result in a recession, they noted.

"Aggressive moves from the Fed will continue because inflation has proven stubborn," said the report. Even as last month's CPI reading showed signs of easing, and came in below expectations, it remains 7.7 percent higher year over year.

As part of the bank's forecast, it expects that the U.S. economy could lose over a million jobs by the middle of 2024. That labor market weakness, then, will convince the Fed that it's generated enough "disinflationary impetus" to adjust policy to a more neutral stance, according to the report.