Seven in 10 economists expect recession in U.S. next year: poll

NEW YORK, June 16 (Xinhua) -- Nearly seven out of 10 economists believe there will be a recession in the United States next year amid geopolitical tensions and soaring inflation, Newsweek on Tuesday cited a new poll.

According to Investopedia, a recession is a significant decline across an entire economy that lasts at least several months. A country that has shown two consecutive quarters of economic decline is typically thought of as being in a recession.

The poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, suggests that "increasing challenges such as the Ukraine war and inflation may lead to the U.S. economy tipping into recession."

Two percent of the 47 participating economists believed a recession will start in the final quarter of 2022 or earlier. However, 38 percent believed it would start in the first half of 2023 and 30 percent believed one would start in the second half of next year.

Fifty-seven percent of the economists believed that geopolitical tensions and increasing energy costs would be the main drivers of inflation over the next year, while 14 percent believed that continued supply chain disruptions would be the main driver of inflation.