TOKYO, Dec. 2 -- With official campaigning kicking off Tuesday for the Dec. 14 general election in Japan, a recent verdict by the country's Supreme Court, saying the 2013 upper house vote was held in "a state of unconstitutionality" due to the disparity in the weight of individual votes across different constituencies, is an inevitable issue for the looming poll.
The verdict last week, however, stopped short of nullifying the election result despite calls to do so from civil groups of lawyers who had been petitioning a number of High Courts in Japan over the issue, which in one case has seen votes in the least populated constituency worth 4.77 times more than a vote in the most populous one.
Lower voter turnout rates here, coupled with the disparity in the weight of votes, have prompted questions as to how the electorate's voice could truly be heard in the upcoming general election through vote, as the top court also ruled the 2012 general election, that saw Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rise to the posts of prime minister and ruling party, was also held in a similar state of unconstitutionality.
The polls of the upper house and lower house are a separate issue in some respects, but they are also connected, said Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo, adding "the vote disparity in the lower house has not been fundamentally addressed either."
Abe vowed ahead of the 2012 general election that he would reform the electoral system once he was in office, but two years have passed since he returned to power and there has been little progress in this direction by his administration.
"None of the parties have been very keen to collaborate to reform the system, but the LDP too has been dragging its feet. Obviously, the LDP has an advantage in maintaining the current situation that gives more weight to the votes in the rural areas where it is strong," Nakano told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.
The professor further explained that the Japanese electoral system is hugely dependent on what is called the 'First Past the Post' system -- the so-called winner takes all system. "And as the largest party by far, the ruling LDP has a big advantage," he added.
Nakano said the dissolution of the lower house came at a time when Abe was weakened by scandals of his ministers that led to the resignations of two female ministers and at a time when the effects of "Abenomics" had waned as government data showed that Japan slipped into recession, leading Abe's to shelve a second sales tax hike for 18 months and dissolve the lower house in order to try and gain renewed public support.
"Bad news came in. The prime minister thought before the opposition parties get organized, it would be to his advantage to call an election before his government becomes even weaker if Abe' s economic policies fail," said Nakano, pointing out that "if Abe was to carry out the tax hike as planned, he was going to receive a lot of public criticism. So in order to preempt the criticism from weakening him further, he decided to call the poll."
The expert went on to say that Abe hopes delaying the second consumption tax hike may earn him some support, but at the same time, because he is also committing the government to raising the tax in 2017, it is going to be a rather unpopular decision if people take a closer look at it.
What the prime minister is saying is that regardless of the economic conditions, tax will go up in 2017.
Nakano said that there are certain people who think the tax hike delay is a failure of "Abenomics," stating that he tends to look at things that way as well.
"'Abenomics' has always purported to be able to make companies richer and the stock markets rise. But when it comes to actually increasing the spending power of the ordinary people, it really doesn't have much effect that can be seen at this point. It is perhaps a fundamental problem of 'Abenomics.'"
Abe is trying to make "Abenomics" as the center of debates ahead of the general election, even saying the dissolution of the lower house aims at turning to voters to decide his policies, both economic and otherwise, in a move to avoid controversial and unpopular issues, such as the Special Secrecy Law and the right to collective self-defense, becoming focal points which the opposition camp would criticize.
On this point, Nakano said the looming election "is a snap election with very little time for real debate. The government has an advantage here because it has a strong media influence, and after all, the economy is an issue the majority of the people care about. Of course, many of the voters will express their unhappiness with the government's economic management record, but again, the LDP is protected by the electoral system."
Latest polls by Japanese media showed that the disapproval rate for Abe's cabinet has exceeded its support rate, but the LDP also gained the most support when the respondents were asked to which party they would cast their ballots, while the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ranked second.
The professor said that it is because of lack of a better alternative since the demise of the DPJ, which was ousted by the LDP from the ruling position in the 2012 general election.
Although Nakano said the opposition parties have to consider seriously forming electoral alliances in order to present a challenge to the LDP candidates, he ruled out the possibility of seeing an integrated opposition ally soon.
"The opposition parties are still divided, and include some parties that are placed further to the right of the LDP on many issues. It is hard to foresee an effective opposition emerging any time soon," Nakano concluded.
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