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No end in sight for Japan’s economic winter as Abe aims off target

By Meng Xiaoxu  (Global Times)    08:30, November 06, 2014
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After two "lost decades," Japan is still struggling with a chilly economic winter. Although the idea of returning to the abundant and hopeful 1970s or 1980s is already a lost dream, the Japanese government has been making efforts to boost the economy.

Shinzo Abe, elected Japanese prime minister for a second time, has vowed repeatedly to revive Japan and realize his vision of a "beautiful country" that is confident and proud. He said he would fight for this goal shoulder to shoulder with young people.

As soon as he took office, Abe boldly pushed forward a new plan to revive the Japanese economy, or "Abenomics" based upon "three arrows." Despite positive shifts in the short term, Japan still lingers in economic winter.

Japan's second quarter GDP shrank 7.1 percent, the biggest contraction since 2009, although part of this was attributed to the introduction of a new sales tax. The trade deficit from April to September rose to 5.4271 trillion yen ($47.8 billion), a record high for any fiscal first-half period since the data became available in 1979.

The trade imbalance went alongside with shrinking domestic consumption in the third quarter. And exports fell 0.3 percent during April to September, compared with this period last year. Household spending dropped 4.7 percent in August from a year ago. The actual income of Japanese citizens, influenced by rising prices and the devaluation of the yen, dropped rather than increased.

The stimulus effect and consequent virtuous circle of Abenomics haven't arrived as expected. In an economy which is highly developed and mature, it is hard for any government regulation to exert imminent impact. Facing weak economic statistics, the Japanese public is dubious about Abenomics, although its third arrow hasn't been fully shot yet.

A recent poll released in October showed that the approval rating for Abe's cabinet had fallen to 48.1 percent, down 6.8 percentage points from September. In contrast, the number of those who didn't support the cabinet soared from 29 percent in September to 40 percent in October. And 84.8 percent said they felt no economic recovery had been brought by Abe's stimulus policies.

The prolonged economic slump has caused serious thinking among Japanese economists and commentators. Some stress that the fundamental reason behind the downturn is Japanese people's uneasiness and desperation of their future. Some others believe that Japanese society has already entered a new "defeated period," and young people are overwhelmed by the feeling that no matter how hard-working they are, they can hardly get by.

Unfortunately, Abenomics has failed to boost youngsters' confidence yet. A recent government survey showed that 60 percent of Japanese young people thought Japanese prospects would be very gloomy a half century later due to demographic and economic problems.

For Japan, a society that has a strong sense of crisis, long-term concerns over population seem even greater than worries over the bleak economy at the moment. Japan is facing the most severe crisis since its economy became highly developed.

Japan's overall population has been declining for seven consecutive years. The aging problem is increasingly prominent, and the birth rate has been low. According to estimates by a government report, 40 percent of Japanese will be over 65 in 2060.

Along with a long-term economic downturn, Japan is gradually walking against, not toward the vision of a "beautiful country" that Abe envisages. Different groups have emerged among youngsters, such as "soushoku danshi," literally translated as "grass-eating boys" who shun sex and prefer less competitive lives, and "hikikomori" who reject social roles and engage in reclusive shut-in lives.

Meanwhile, more youngsters in Japan are turning to lifestyles of short-term dating, pornographic cartoons and virtual girlfriends. Previously such bizarre social habits only appeared in fictions.

Does Japan provide us a peep into human society in the future? Similar changes are taking place in some other countries, a chilly economy coexists with a shrinking population.Urging women to have children has become an important link in Japan's national development strategy. Nonetheless, Abenomics may serve as an obstacle in this regard, and push Japan toward the above-mentioned negative social transformation.

Womenomics is an important part of Abenomics, which aims to prompt women to take up careers and therefore expand available working forces in the market. But independence and the pursuit of careers for women may cause low birth rates.

In such circumstances, is Abe quenching a thirst with poison through Abenomics?

The author is an associate professor at the Department of International Politics, China University of International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

(Editor:张媛、Liang Jun)
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