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News analysis: Victory for No camp in Scottish referendum preserves Union but raises questions for UK

(Xinhua)    11:25, September 20, 2014
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LONDON, Sept. 19 -- The Scottish referendum was a victory for the 'no' camp, and avoided the break-up of the 307-year-old union between Scotland and the rest of Britain and the huge upheaval of a divorce, but now the die has been cast the result poses many questions for the United Kingdom.

A total of 44.7 percent of Scots who voted wanted independence from the Union, while 55.3 percent voted to continue as a part of the United Kingdom.

Though the referendum is over, it has revealed a Scottish nation which faces a period of reconciliation between the two groups.

"There is a real division down the middle of Scotland over this issue. What that means going forward we can only find out by seeing how it develops," Dr Andrew Blick, lecturer in politics and contemporary history at King's College, London, told Xinhua Friday.

It is certain, however, that for Scotland the victory for the 'no' group means that there will be change to their political life, with more power being devolved to the Scottish parliament.

Senior British politicians from all the main parties in the national parliament in Westminster all moved to back greater devolution of powers to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh in the days immediately before the poll.

They had been spurred into action by a poll at the beginning of this month which showed the 'yes' camp likely to win, the first time this had happened in the two-year campaign.

This will certainly mean more power to raise taxes granted to the Scottish government. British prime minister David Cameron outlined Friday that this would happen after the next national general election, scheduled for May 2015.

"The Scots can expect to see pretty quickly, certainly by 2016, a transfer of more powers to their government in Edinburgh. That is definitely on the agenda, and it will happen. Exactly how far these transfers will go is not entirely clear, but we know they are substantial and they are certainly going to involve a lot of taxation, money raising powers, moving to Scotland. That is definitely going to happen and that is going to be a very important shift for them," commented Blick.

As a result of the defeat for the 'yes' party Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Alex Salmond, the driving force behind the independence movement, has announced to stand down as First Minister from the Scottish parliament on Friday.

He had already ruled out another referendum, but other politicians in the years to come may wish to revisit it.

"Certainly we can't rule out that another independence vote will happen. We have had one, why not have another one. They are not on the immediate agenda and there seems to be a general acceptance at the moment that it will be a good number of years before that can even happen again," said Blick.

But Blick ruled out the likelihood of social unrest or instability in Scotland as a result of the vote.

He said: "I think we are quite some way from a fully blown uprising of some kind or serious violence. It is not like Northern Ireland, another part of the UK where there is a long violent dispute that has been managed down recently but which certainly existed. There is nothing on that level."

However should the national government and main national political parties fail to deliver on their promises of greater devolved power the momentum for another vote could build up, and there could be unrest.

"If the promises made by the leading political figures at Westminster in the final few days of the campaign to transfer a lot of power to Edinburgh in return for them staying in the Union are not made good on, or if people in Scotland feel they are not actually being honored, then you could see certainly protests, perhaps civil disobedience," said Blick.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROBLEMS FOR ENGLAND

The devolution of more powers to Scotland now raises the question of greater representation for England.

England is alone among the four nations of the United Kingdom -- England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland -- in not having its own parliament or assembly, as the Westminster parliament is for the whole of the United Kingdom.

This produces the current anomaly of Scottish MPs voting on issues which do not effect them. Health care is an example, as much of the responsibility for this has already been devolved to the Scottish parliament.

Conservative MP Christopher Chope articulated these complaints in the days just before the referendum, after the main political parties had promised to give Scotland greater powers under a 'maximum devolution' (devo max) arrangement.

"My constituents are saying 'hang on a minute, you can't have a devo max settlement for Scotland, which we're paying for, without having a look at the balance of competences and powers within the United Kingdom," said Chope.

Prime minister Cameron has moved to address those complaints with a promise to look at an English parliament and the immediate establishment of a Cabinet Committee to examine the options under the control of a senior politician, the former foreign secretary William Hague.

Blick outlined some of the problems. "The consequences for the rest of the UK are going to be immense because you cannot keep devolving power to Scotland without having an impact on the entire constitutional settlement on the rest of the UK," he said.

Cameron commented in a speech on Friday morning:"It is absolutely right that a new and fair settlement for Scotland should be accompanied by a new and fair settlement that applies to all parts of our United Kingdom. I have long believed that a crucial part missing from this national discussion is England. We have heard the voice of Scotland -- and now the millions of voices of England must also be heard. The question of English votes for English laws - the so-called West Lothian question -- requires a decisive answer."

Other parts of the UK -- Wales and Northern Ireland -- have got devolution, and Blick believes they may want more.

"England accounts for the vast majority of the UK population but it has had non devolution outside of Greater London. So, there is a big question about what happens with England. Is England actually going to want to start devolving power internally? Will England get a parliament? Will there be a regional system? And is the UK actually moving bit by bit towards a fully federal structure and how could that actually work," he said.

"All these questions are definitely being thrown up by the Scottish 'no' vote. So, the 'no' vote has actually in many ways raised as many questions as a 'yes' vote would have done," he added.

There has been little discussion among the general public in England about devolved power, and the issues have not been debated enough to produce a clear plan.

If examples from elsewhere in the world are examined, it is clear that federalism does work -- for example in Germany, the United States, and Canada.

But the United Kingdom is dominated by England, which represents 85 percent of the population and such a large entity within a federal structure is a recipe for instability in the future said Blick.

In addition, the United Kingdom now faces a general election next year, which, if prime minister Cameron wins, will result in a referendum on the United Kingdom's continued membership of the European Union (EU).

"If over the next two to three years the UK is actually redesigning its own internal constitutional structure, that is going to be quite a big time-consuming task in itself. If at the same time as doing that we are reorganising our relationship with the European Union that is going to get even more complicated still and create even more political dislocation, disagreements within the UK about what the right way forward is," he said.

A second referendum, this time on EU membership, could be an even larger and more significant event than the Scottish referendum and its effects would be felt in Europe and across the world.

"People will be asking what is actually going on with this country? Are they falling apart, do they know what they want to be? Why do they keep holding referendums like this? So these are big issues coming up for the UK and they are difficult questions to answer," said Blick.

(Editor:Du Mingming、Bianji)
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