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UK economic recovery still unbalanced despite robust Q1 2014 growth

( )    10:20, May 23, 2014
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LONDON, May 22  -- Continued robust growth in the British economy was confirmed Thursday with GDP growth for the first quarter of 0.8 percent, but the recovery still remains unbalanced and is driven by consumption rather than exports and investment.

The second take of GDP figures for Q1 2014 are unrevised at 0.8 percent, and at 3.1 percent year on year.

This compares favorably with long-term trend growth of 2-2.5 percent. It's also the fourth straight quarter of quarterly growth at 0.7 percent or above. What could be wrong with that?

Nothing very much, and there should be some joy too from the 100-million-pound (168.72 million U.S. dollars) fall in the trade balance, from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds. But that is a small fall.

And it hides a decline in exports, with the improvement in the trade balance coming from an even bigger fall in imports.

There is increased investment, but experts believe this needs to increase in order to deliver a sustainable recovery from a balanced economy.

REBALANCE TOWARDS INVESTMENT NEEDED

As David Kern, chief economist with industry representative body British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said in a note: "Some rebalancing towards investment and exports is taking place, but the pace is inadequate and efforts in these areas must be strengthened."

The recovery of the British economy has been unexpected and robust and has now been maintained in every quarter since the end of 2012.

This is unequivocal good news. The problem for the British recovery is that it was driven in 2013 by consumers dipping into their savings to fuel consumption.

This unbalanced recovery reflected greater confidence over jobs and wages among ordinary people, and also about the booming housing market, which looks set to create its own problems.

And the imbalance in the recovery can also be seen in the sectoral growth.

The service sector, responsible for just over 75 percent of the economy, goes from strength to strength. Growth here continued to pick up, with activity up 0.9 percent quarter on quarter.

This is great news, but, when the figures are examined in more detail, there are worrying implications.

There has been growth in the wholesale and retail industries, where output increased 1.8 percent quarter on quarter, and that growth is driven by consumption.

There is a danger that the recovery will slow down as consumers find their pockets becoming emptier.

For a more secure recovery, the British economy needs to find new export markets, and there is little sign of that in these GDP figures, and to see firms investing a great deal more in developing their businesses, an area where these figures show only modest growth. (1 pound = 1.68 U.S. dollars)

(Editor:Wang Xin、Gao Yinan)

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