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Global growth expected to accelerate moderately in 2015

(Xinhua)    10:38, December 10, 2014
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NEW YORK, Dec. 9 -- Global economic growth will accelerate moderately next year and some economists predict that the bull market in equities can continue to rally, although at a slower pace.

The global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to reach 3.7 percent next year, compared with 3.2 percent this year, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said recently here at a year-ahead outlook press conference.

The U.S. GDP growth is forecast to be 3.3 percent in 2015, higher than2.3 percent forecast for 2014.

Robust U.S. economic growth continues to outpace the rest of the world, boding well for U.S. employment, wages and housing in 2015, said the economists.

"We think the U.S. will enjoy above-trend growth in the next two years," said Ethan Harris, co-head of Global Economics Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"What's happened in the U.S. is after the 2008, 2009 crisis we really had substantial healing in the economy, with banks normalizing, the housing market normalizing and household balance sheet improving," said Harris.

The United States, which is becoming a bigger oil producer, will benefit from low oil prices, and that's going to have another extra kick to the economy, Harris said.

Emerging markets should experience moderate acceleration in 2015, with economic growth in emerging markets expected to improve to 4.5 percent next year, up slightly from a disappointing 4.2 percent growth in 2014.

The economists noted that the improvement in emerging markets' growth next year should be driven by stronger U.S. growth, lower energy prices and cyclical rebounds in a few large economies like Brazil and India.

In comparison, they believed the euro area economy is expected to grow 1.2 percent in 2015 from 0.8 percent this year. However, the anemic growth cannot fix problems Europe is facing.

The economists also pointed out that low inflation is driving policy across the world.

"Low inflation slows the Federal Reserve's exit from quantitative easing, speeds quantitative easing in Europe, keeps the Bank of Japan expanding and allows China and India to add stimulus until growth is restored," Harris noted.

Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain steady at about 1.5 percent, well below the Fed's 2-percent target, said the economists.

Against the back drop of low inflation, Merrill Lynch economists believe the Fed will be patient in raising interest rates and forecast the first rate hike will occur in September next year.

The U.S. bull market has lasted for nearly six years, with the S&P 500 already tripling itself from its March 2009 low at the nadir of the financial crisis.

The S&P 500 rallied 11.44 percent to 2,059.82 points by the close on Tuesday, following a nearly 30-percent annual gain last year.

Looking ahead, Merrill Lynch economists forecast that the bull market will "slow to a jog" in 2015.

"The bull market in stocks isn't over yet. We're optimistic about the ongoing strength of U.S. stocks, especially when compared with other asset categories," said Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"But stock returns will slow down in 2014, going from a sprint to a jog," Subramanian said, adding "it's time to be selective."

The 2015 year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2,200, putting returns on a more normal pace of 6 percent, Subramanian said, which is the lowest return they've built into forecast since she has been covering equity strategies.

Subramanian said valuation is no longer a strong support for the stock market, as valuations for the S&P 500 have gone from cheap to nearly fair value, so it's difficult to sustain the bullish outlook they've held over the past few years.

U.S. stocks have been under pressure of falling oil prices recently. Global oil prices continued to refresh five-year lows on the back of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) decision not to cut oil production.

Dipping oil prices is a double-edged sword, as it would boost consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, while hurting profits of energy companies and oilfield services firms.

The economists believed that declining oil prices is a negative to the overall S&P 500. "We actually took down our earnings forecast on a reduction in our crude forecast," said Subramanian.

Echoing her view, Dan Suzuki, senior U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said "the negative impact for energy earnings by far outweighs the positive impact for the rest of the S&P."

(Editor:Yuan Can,Liang Jun)
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