China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is about to announce the results of its year-long antitrust investigation into Qualcomm Inc, the world's largest mobile chip maker by sales, China Business News (CBN) reported on Wednesday, citing an unidentified source with knowledge of the matter.

The US chip maker is facing the possibility of a fine, and a reduction in the patent royalty fees it charges to Chinese companies.

On top of that, Qualcomm could be required to revoke its patent licensing policy, said the source.

Under the existing policy, companies that use Qualcomm chips are required to give Qualcomm licenses to their own patented technology, and Qualcomm's clients do not have to pay to use this technology.

Qualcomm could also face a fine of more than $1 billion, according to the report, which cited industry estimates.

A faxed request to the NDRC for confirmation of the report's claims went unanswered by press time.

"We have no knowledge of the latest progress [in the probe]," Qi Fei, a Beijing-based spokeswoman for Qualcomm, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Speculation about the outcome of the antitrust probe is adding to concerns over the outlook for the US chip maker, which is heavily reliant on royalty revenues.

Qualcomm's business will certainly be heavily affected if the probe results in punitive measures, Xiang Ligang, CEO of industry information portal cctime.com, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

It may force the company to overhaul its China market strategy, Xiang said.

Also, if Qualcomm is forced to revoke its patent licensing policy in China, it might then be forced to do so in other markets, analysts said.

Qualcomm said in November that it is also facing an investigation by the European Commission regarding rebates and other financial incentives in its chip sales, in addition to another preliminary probe by the US Federal Trade Commission about a potential breach of licensing terms.

Meanwhile, China's probe into Qualcomm could have very different effects on China's mobile phone makers.

A reduction in patent royalty fees could allow Chinese manufacturers to cut the prices of their mobile phones, further sharpening their competitive edge over global rivals, remarked Xiang.

But he also noted that if Qualcomm is forced to withdraw its patent licensing policy, it would be good news for more established companies like ­Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corp, which have extensive patent portfolios.

However, newer companies such as Xiaomi Inc, which have small patent reserves, would be in a much weaker position, said Xiang.

Beijing-based Xiaomi, which started selling smartphones three years ago, became the third-largest smartphone vendor worldwide in terms of shipments in the third quarter of 2014, according to statistics released in late October by the US-based industry tracker Strategy Analytics, placing it behind only Samsung Electronics and Apple Inc.

A spokesman for Xiaomi in Beijing declined to comment when contacted by the Global Times on Wednesday.

A ZTE spokesperson also said the company had no comment when reached by the Global Times on Wednesday.

Casting aside worries that the likes of Xiaomi might be affected badly if the annulment of Qualcomm's patent policy is confirmed, Wang Yanhui, head of Shanghai-based Mobile China Alliances, said an imminent patent war among domestic smartphone companies is not likely.

In theory, mobile phone patent owners have the right to file lawsuits against other phone firms if they engage in unauthorized use of the patents, but actually there is no precedent of a successful case in this field in China.

This means that patent complaints are more of a deterrent against unauthorized use of the patents rather than an effective method for gaining a competitive edge, Wang told the Global Times on Wednesday 

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