Tensions in Ukraine have intensified with the referendums being held in the east. Where is the Ukraine heading? And how are events there likely to influence the wider international situation?

The future of Ukraine offers three possibilities: to formally split into west and east, genuine unity, or a future determined by the result of longstanding internal strife or war (including a major power proxy war). The first two possibilities seem unlikely in the context of the current situation in Ukraine.

Real unity for the Ukraine is problematic given its historical identity and geographial location, and the current international environment. Historically speaking, for a long period eastern and western Ukraine had been administered by neighboring powers, and its status as a single nation is of recent origin. This has led to big gaps between the east and the west regarding religion, culture, humanity and political ideas, and a lack of the sense of belonging. Geographically speaking, the Ukraine lies at the sensitive junction of eastern and western Europe and has long been seen as a 'prize' to be taken.

Meanwhile, a formal split is unthinkable, not only because it goes against the national aspirations of the Ukraine, but also because it conflicts with the strategic interests of the West and the East. For Russia, a split of the Ukraine must lead to western Ukraine’s siding with the West, therefore, Russia would face the menace of NATO along the Dnieper river and encounter obstacles in its western expansion, while the U.S. is not prepared to accept eastern Ukraine’s subordination to Russia.

The future of Ukraine will most probably be determined by internal strife or war, and this could include proxy conflict manipulated by major powers. Ukraine could establish a Confederate state composed of two equal entities without a central authority, which would maintain superficial unity. The 'central state' could be pro-Russia, pro-West or neutral, which would be decided by the relative strength of the two sides. Both Russia and the U.S. understand that no single nation can control Ukraine. What Russia seeks currently is a pro-Russia Ukraine or at worst a neutral Ukraine (with the exception of Crimea) that would act as a buffer zone between Russia and the West, but which at the same time would restrict its own opportunities for future western expansion. Meanwhile the U.S. is trying to turn the Ukraine into a pro-western country to guard against and contain Russia. The contest between Russia and the U.S. in Ukraine is likely to be lengthy and complicated.

Will the Ukraine crisis lead to another round of cold war - or even hot war or a third world war? The Ukraine crisis is a regional crisis and will affect the Russia-U.S. relationship over a certain period and in certain areas. It will also affect global international relations to a certain extent, but will not change the big picture of international trends. Ukraine is not part of America's strategic focus, and Russia is not inclined to initiate a major confrontation with the U.S. for the sake of taking control of Ukraine.

The article is edited and translated from 俄罗斯想要的，是个缓冲地带; Source: Jiefang Daily; Author: Pei Yuanying,former Chinese ambassador to Poland.