Regarding the escalation of tension and eruption of violence in Ukraine last week, Feng Yujun, director of the Institute of Russian Studies in the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), offered the following comment:

The deep root of the chaos in Ukraine lies in the fact that the Ukrainian elite has failed to bridge the gap with the general public in terms of the political and cultural differences within the country; neither has it succeeded in forging a unified national identity in a period of social transition. Ukraine lacks a clear national strategic plan which spells out the direction it will take for its future development. Meanwhile, geopolitical arm-wrestling over the country by major world powers has also contributed to tearing Ukraine apart.

Ukraine is a large European country with an extremely important geopolitical value.

To the Russian Federation, Kiev is the place where its civilization originated, and Ukraine is a strategic pivot if it wants to realize its dream of rejuvenation. After being elected President for the third time, Putin stepped up his promotion of Euroasian integration, in which Ukraine is an indispensable link. Against the backdrop of instability in the balance of power and intensified political conflict between Russia and the US, it will be an unbearable loss for Russia if Ukraine turns to the West. In consideration of this factor, Russia has proposed to purchase $15 billion in Ukraine's Eurobonds and offered cheaper gas supplies in exchange for Ukraine's temporary abandonment of an accord with the European Union. Since the riots broke out in Kiev, the Kremlin has acted cautiously in order to avoid being dragged into the matter directly.

The US and Europe also value the geopolitical significance of Ukraine. In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski described Ukraine as a geopolitical pivot whose very existence as an independent country transforms the position of Russia. "Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire," Brzezinski wrote. The US and Europe, backed by their conviction that Russia is "too weak, too backward and too poor" to intervene, have hastened their efforts to put pressure on the Ukrainian authorities and support its opposition Parties. US Vice President Biden has signaled to Ukrainian president Yanukovych on several occasions to warn him of severe US sanctions against Ukraine should the Ukrainian government use force against the opposition, and US Assistant Secretary of State Nuland has even instructed US Ambassador on the composition of the next Ukrainian government.

At the moment, it is hard to tell which way the situation in Ukraine will go. But it is certain that parties in Ukraine have a long way to go before they can mend any political fences, and the geopolitical battle over the country will continue to be fought by major powers in the foreseeable future.

Source: People's Daily