According to the Report for China's Macro-Economic Analysis and Forecast published by Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China, driven by such factors as the change of political leaders after the 18th National Congress of the CPC, slight increase in foreign demand and constant rise in investment, China's economy will return to the era of "9-percent GDP growth" by 2013, with GDP growth rate up to 9.3 percent and CPI up by 4.1 percent.
The Report argues that 2012 coincides with the recovery of Chinese economy from depression. With such factors as continuous consumption increase, substantial increase of investment in infrastructure, release of "rigid demand" caused by fine-tuning of real estate policy, constant release of monetary policy and financial policy, as well as steady overseas market demand brought by stable global markets, China's macro-economy has begun to rebound in September 2012, marking its return to the track of recovery.
The Report says that the decline in economy in the first three quarters surpassed the expectation, whereas the recovery in the fourth quarter may also be bigger-than-expected.
Professor Liu Yuanchun, Assistant Dean of School of economics in Renmin University of China, said that China's economy in 2013 will continue the momentum of the fourth quarter of 2012.
He added, due to the change of political leaders, the settlement of the real estate predicament, the mild improvement of international environment, the relaxation of the financial predicament and the economic recovery in the first three quarters of 2012, China's macro-economy will usher into a sub-high-speed growth period.
He introduced that, according to the forecast of Institute of Economics of Renmin University of China by using a model, China's GDP will grow by 8.0 percent in 2012, down by 1.3 percentage points compared with 2011. China's economy will return to the era of "9-percent GDP growth" by 2013, with a growth rate up to 9.3 percent and CPI up by 4.1 percent.
The Report shows that the short-term macroeconomic policy should remain relatively relaxed and positive, while strengthening the medium-term positioning in the future. Efforts should also be made to surpass the position of "new normal" pessimism on the basis of correct understanding of the changes in various structural strengths and cyclical forces, and make breakthroughs in key fields such as income distribution and real estate and other key areas, so as to eliminate "reform fatigue".
Read the Chinese version: 报告估2013年CPI将至4.1% GDP增速或重返9时代
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