Kaesong closure major blow to Seoul

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(Global Times) 10:13, August 02, 2013

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South Korea sent a final proposal to its northern neighbor on Monday to restart operations at the Kaesong industrial complex that has been suspended since April when North Korea withdrew its workers in protest against the joint military drills between the South and the US.

The two Koreas have held six rounds of working-level talks on the resumption of the joint industrial zone, which all ended in deadlock.

The multiple negotiations failed mainly due to a lack of mutual trust in political and security areas.

First, South Korean President Park Geun-hye has maintained a tough attitude toward the North in diplomatic affairs, despite minor signs of alleviation, since she took office.

The Saenuri Party, currently led by Park, has long been shunned by Pyongyang as a conservative and pro-US political entity. Chances of the two Koreas developing closer ties they enjoyed during Kim Dae-jung's reign (1998-2003) may all be doomed, at least as long as the US government maintains its tough stance regarding the North Korean nuclear issue.

North Korea, viewed as a long-term threat to the international community and in particular to Northeast Asia with its persistent nuclear pursuits, is facing difficult choices.

The Kim Jong-un administration attaches equal importance to military buildup and economic growth.

But severe sanctions imposed by the UN and increasing isolation by the international community leave Pyongyang, still in a wartime mentality, no alternative but to seek military might through menacing nuclear tests.

Pyongyang blamed the shutdown of the Kaesong industrial zone on Seoul's "provocation," namely its military drills with Washington during March and April. But according to the South, these tests served as a response to Pyongyang's nuclear test in February.

The current deadlock still finds its root in the pending nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

On Sunday, South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae called for a clear answer from the North on preventing a recurrence of a unilateral closure of the complex. "Otherwise, we will be left with no choice but to make a grave decision to prevent even bigger damages on our companies in the future," Ryoo said.

It seems that the minister took a somewhat unyielding attitude toward North Korea concerning reviving the joint complex. Some predict that Seoul might adopt specific measures like cutting off water or electricity to the North in the next stage. But I don't think the South can afford to do so. There are actually very few real measures Seoul can take to contain its neighbor.

For one, a basically self-supporting economic development mode has taken shape in the North during the past decades as a result of multifaceted factors at home and abroad.

With the intention of adopting an opening-up policy and integrating its economy internationally, its government has resorted to China and certain Southeast Asian countries for trade and economic support.

Pyongyang does not need to rely much on Seoul for economic progress, and even the permanent closure of the industrial zone will do little harm to its domestic market.

Therefore, the South should remain rational by adopting a long-term perspective.

The Park administration is also unlikely to restrain the North with political means unless it gets assistance from the US. But at present, relations between China and the US are smooth, while China has enjoyed a traditional friendship with North Korea. Seoul must take into account Beijing's interests before making any decisions.

By making the abovementioned remarks, the South Korean minister simply sent a warning aimed to pressure Pyongyang back to the negotiation table once again.

In an apparent gesture to "lure" its neighbor to a fresh round of talks, the minister also announced that $7.3 million in humanitarian aid would be provided to the North.

This moderate-sized aid may help relieve elevated tensions on the Korean Peninsula. But there is little hope that it will play a decisive role in getting the North back to the table.

Until now, Pyongyang has not given an explicit reply as to whether it will accept Seoul's offer. It is hard to predict the country's attitude as the permanent closure of the Kaesong industrial complex does less harm to it than to its neighbor.